2009 National League West

Here is our first preview of the 2009 season. I know these are a little late but we will start out with the National League West and work our way through the divisions as the week progresses.

The Basement

I really don't see San Diego or Colorado contending for the division this year. Colorado should be encouraged by the return of Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop but they also lost their best hitter in the offseason, Matt Holliday. Jeff Francis, the ace of their 2007 staff during their run to the world series, is hurt again in 2009 and Colorado just doesn't have the pitching to compete with the stronger teams in the division. San Diego has a poor offense and if they struggle out of the gate like I think they will, ace right-hander Jake Peavy could be traded to a contender. They pose no real threat in my eyes.

Might Surprise

San Francisco should be improved behind phenom Tim Lincecum and a group of quality starting pitchers. Matt Cain strikes people out and would have a better record over the past few seasons if not for the Giants' pathetic offense. Jonathan Sanchez is a lefty who won 9 games with an ERA of 5.01 last year while striking out nearly a batter per inning in nearly 160 innings. His control is an issue but he was somewhat unlucky last year, giving up a high batting average on balls hit in play. That number should come down, and if it does, his ERA will come down as well. The immortal Randy Johnson is certainly a question mark at this point in his career but if he can come close to replicating the season he had in 2008 for the Diamondbacks the Giants' starting pitching could be very good. All of that said, I don't feel like they pose a threat to Los Angeles or Arizona, but I do think they finish 3rd ahead of Colorado and San Diego.

The Contenders

Los Angeles ended the Manny saga early in the spring, bringing back the mercurial slugger for two more seasons in Dodger blue. While he almost certainly won't duplicate his 2008 second half, he solidifies the offense built around young players like Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, James Loney, and Russell Martin. If Rafael Furcal can return to form coming back from injury, I think the Dodgers could roll out the top offense in the division.

Arizona has two studs at the top of their rotation in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. Doug Davis and Max Scherzer will probably be their #3 and #4 starters. Doug Davis is a pretty mediocre veteran. He should post an ERA somewhere around 4.50 and win 8-10 games. Max Scherzer is much more compelling to me, despite dealing with a hurt shoulder this spring. He struck out over 10 hitters per nine innings last year out of the bullpen and if he can continue some of that success while starting games and staying healthy he should be another solid member of the rotation in 2009. The Diamondbacks also signed Jon Garland but he sucks and is a waste of $12 million in my eyes. The offense is very reliant on young players, but the hitters have talent. Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson were probably their best hitters last year, and both are young so they could see improvements in 2009. Stephen Drew could stand to cut down on his strikeouts and try and draw a few more walks. His defense at SS is fairly underwhelming as well. I really like Conor Jackson at 1B, despite the perceived lack of power. He should post a good batting average and OBP while hitting 15-20 HR. Chris Young in CF is guy who won't put up a high OBP or batting average, but should hit 20 homeruns and steal 20 bases. His defense seems like it should be better in CF considering his athletic ability, but the metrics show him to be pretty average out there. Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds are some other intriguing names on the roster. Upton is super young and talented. He is much stronger than his brother B.J. and could put up 20 HR. He turns 22 in August, so that is some pretty impressive power potential. Mark Reynolds has a lot of power potential as well. He hit 28 HR last year and could certainly build upon that again this year, but he will certainly strike out a lot and hit for a low average. All in all the Diamondbacks have a lot of talent but the uncertainty is just high enough for me to go with the Dodgers to win the west.

MVP

I think Manny Ramirez will be the MVP of the division; the guy was born to hit and shows no signs of slowing down. He will probably hit .300 with 30 HR and 100 RBI in his sleep. With an OPS that will creep toward .1000, he is simply the best hitter in the division.

CY Young

This one is tougher than the MVP choice. For me it comes down to Brandon Webb and Tim Lincecum, just like the NL Cy Young race last year. I will go with Lincecum because despite San Francisco's poor offense, he should still win 17+ games with a ton of strikeouts and a dazzling ERA.

The Pick

Los Angeles Dodgers