A look at the central, a division won last year by the lovable losers, the Chicago Cubs....The Basement:
The Pirates and Astros appear to be the weaklings of the group. The Pirates best hitter last year (of the guys they didn't trade to the American League East midseason) was Nate McClouth. What a great story. He was selected to play in the midsummer classic and won a gold glove for his work in centerfield. The 27-year-old appeared to really come into his own, hitting over 20 HR and stealing over 20 bases while posting an OPS of .853. For the stat junkies he was estimated to be worth about 3.6 wins to his team last year, more than some better known CF like Curtis Granderson and Torii Hunter. The problem, he was actually a pretty bad defensive CF. You may ask, "Then how did he win a freaking gold glove?!?!" My answer is this: I have no clue. Most of the advanced defensive metrics have him as one of the three worst defensive CF for guys who played out there for at least 300 innings. It blows me away to think of the guys who vote on these awards and how little they care. Anyway, the rest of their lineup has a few bright spots for Bucs fans to look forward to. Ryan Doumit is a very good hitting catcher when healthy. Andy Laroche was rated as the 19th best prospect in the game by Baseball America in 2007; the Pirates got him from the Dodgers last season. The rotation is led by Paul Maholm and Ian Snell. Neither got to double digit wins last season but Maholm had a sub-4.00 ERA and Snell won 14 games and struck out 169 batters in 2006. If these two guys can pitch healthy and effectively all season, the Pirates could avoid the division cellar, but there is virtually no chance they contend for the Central crown.
The Astros appear to be pretty bad as well. They have the familiar sluggers in Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee and the dependable starter in Roy Oswalt, but little else. Miguel Tejada actually saw his defense bounce back in 2008, but his hitting suffered. Throw in the question marks surrounding the steroids and perjury and the Astros probably don't even know what to expect from Miguel this season. The rest of the rotation is pretty mediocre to downright bad. The Astros will struggle in 2009.
The Dark Horse
Cincinnati is a team with some good young position players and some pitchers whose careers are on the rise. Edison Volquez was a Cy Young candidate last year, going 17-6 and striking out over 200 hitters. Expect him to give up a few more homeruns this year considering his home park and propensity to give up the fly ball, but also expect him to win games and strike a lot of guys out. Johnny Cueto is another young arm who struggled last season at times, but he has good stuff and should improve in 2009. If veterans Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang give the club meaningful contributions this season, it's not inconceivable to think the Reds could have a decent little starting rotation. Jay Bruce was a huge outfield prospect who came up last year and could improve this season if he can get on base more often. He does have power as well; he hit 21 homers in just over 400 AB last season. Joey Votto is their young 1B who excelled last year, posting an .874 OPS with 24 HR. He probably won't ever be an elite power hitter but he will hit for average, get on base, and play solid defense at 1B. All in all the Reds have lots of younger talent and could grow up and improve as the season goes on.
Contenders
The Cubs are the favorites but the Brewers or Cardinals could challenge them for division supremacy. The Cardinals have an offense built around the great Albert Pujols, but a starting staff that will rely on the return of a healthy Chris Carpenter. The Brewers have all kinds of good young position players but very little starting pitching. They relied very heavy on CC Sabathia down the stretch last season and I just can't see them making up for the loss of the big fella. The point of all this is that the division is certainly the Cubs to lose. They have a strong lineup and a good pitching staff, although they are depending on the glass arm of Rich Harden, just ask Billy Beane and the Oakland A's how far that will get you. They saw a resurgence from Ryan Dempster last season and Carlos Zambrano won 14 games. Repeating these performances may not be all that likely however. Zambrano has pitched loads of innings year after year and may see his decline after the all-star break last year continue into this season. Dempster was a reliever for four years until last season and nobody knows how that increased workload will affect him in this year's campaign. The Cubs are certainly the odds-on favorite but I don't see them as the lock that many do to take the Central. We must always remember that they are the loveable losers, and after collapsing in the playoffs last year I am curious to see how they approach this season.
CY Young Winner
While I suppose Zambrano, Volquez, Harden, and the Cardinals' Adam Wainwright are all possibilities, I will give this one to Roy Oswalt. He has been a model of consistency through the years, making at last 32 starts six out of the last seven seasons. He won 17 games and struck out 165 hitters last season on a bad Astros team. I see no reason why he can't do it again.
MVP
Albert Pujols every day of the week. The guy probably the best hitter in baseball and should go down as one of the all time greats when he hangs up his cleats. He has played for eight seasons and finished in the top 4 in MVP voting seven times. The other season he finished ninth. The guy is a machine. There is no reason to think he won't post another 1.000 OPS and hit .330 with 35 HR. It's what the guy does.
The Division Winner
The Cubs. I hope it works out for them. Their fans deserve a winner and the post-season is always more entertaining when they are prominently involved.
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