NCAA Tourney: Possible First Round Upsets

It's that time of year again! Sports junkies and casual fans come together and go toe to toe to determine who is the king of the bracket. Many of you are probably like me, agonizing over your brackets, hashing and re-hashing all of the 5-12 match-ups along trying to decide who belongs in the final 4. I really shouldn't make some of these thoughts public record because I am sure my bracket will be an epic failure by noon on Friday, but it's all for fun and who knows, maybe I will get lucky this year and identify a few sleepers in this year's field. Please do not wager on these. I prepare for these picks by looking at stats, rankings, and by watching games, but nothing can replace those guy instincts so many of you feel around this time of year. Here are some of the possible first round upsets I think we could see this week.


#11 Temple over #6 Arizona State

I saw Arizona State and James Harden play several times this year while I have only seen Temple play one game, so this upset possibility is based more on statistics than on what I have gathered from the eyeball test. Temple has a better RPI, strength of schedule, and non-conference strength of schedule than Arizona State. Temple has won 10 of their last 12 games, while Arizona has won 8 of their last 12. Both teams are known for their zone defenses and they shoot almost identically from 3-point range, so that's a wash. Arizona St. does have a better scoring margin for the season, even when it is adjusted according to the competition. This makes me hesitate and I would advise you to with your gut on this pick, but remember that these teams are much more evenly matched than their seeds would indicate.

#11 Utah State over #6 Marquette

Utah State has been a solid team all year, albeit in a smaller conference. They take care of the ball extremely well, boasting one of the nation's stronger assist/turnover ratios. They beat Utah this year and lost a heart-breaker to BYU by five on a neutral floor. Marquette has struggled without Dominic James, losing 7 of their last 12 games down the stretch. Marquette is certainly battle-tested this year playing in the Big East, but they are undersized on the front line and Utah State has a 6'9'' forward named Gary Wilkinson who is averaging nearly 18 points per game. He could pose a problem for Marquette on the block.

#10 USC over #7 Boston College

USC was a fashionable pick to make a decent run in last years field until Kansas St. and Michael Beasley put to bed that nonsense in the first round. USC lost O.J. Mayo to the NBA but returns experienced players Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett, and Dwight Lewis. Freshman DeMar DeRozan wasn't living up to the hype early in the season, but he looks to have turned a corner with his impressive play as of late. They weren't a tournament team however until they streaked to the Pac-10 tournament title last week. Boston College is a team that can beat anyone on any given day but struggles with consistency. They have wins over Duke, Florida St., and at North Carolina(!!!), but have lost to Miami twice, NC State, St. Louis, and Harvard (ouch). USC is ranked higher in almost every category including RPI, strength of schedule, adjusted scoring margin, and both non-conference RPI and SOS. Look for USC to ride their recent hot streak to a possible first round victory.

#12 Wisconsin over #5 Florida State

Wisconsin over Florida St. is more of an instinct pick compared to the others on this list. Florida St. has a much higher RPI than Wisconsin and has played better in their last 12 games, including a run to the ACC title game where they lost to Duke. If the game turns into a track meet look for Florida St. to roll, but Wisconsin could muddy up the waters and turn the game into a bruising, ugly slug-fest. The Seminoles rely heavily on their leading scorer, Toney Douglas, and if the Badgers can knock him off his game a bit, they should have a chance to keep the scoring low and possibility of an upset high.