Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Game 7 in the Rose City?
The Blazers have been so close to victory in the last two games in Houston. Taking my Blazers bias out of the equation, I still see this series coming back to the Rose City for game 7. With Deke tearing up his knee in game 2, Yao has shouldered even more of the load, playing nearly 40 minutes a night the last three games. The Blazers must get off to a fast start tomorrow, if that happens Yao will be sucking wind by halftime, making him a non factor in the second half.
Prediction: Blazers 89 Rockets 87
I hope this prediction is better than my game 3 one...(if you looked at my game 3 prediction, you know not to put any money on my picks, haha)
Friday, April 24, 2009
A Must Win Tonight?

After squeaking one out against Houston in the Rose Garden on Tuesday night, the Blazers must win one of the next two in Houston. I like our chances tonight, even though Deke didn't play a huge role for the Rockets throughout the season, his absence gives the Blazers a significant size advantage whenever Yao is out of the game. I also think that we need Travis, Rudy, or Blake to become that third scorer we have so desperatly been needing these last two games (I know, what great insight...not like that's what every Blazer fan is thinking too!). I have a gut feeling Travis will show up tonight, and that Rudy will provide the team with some timely three point makes. Portland settled down in game 2 (after the nighmare of game one, anything would have been an improvement), and I look for this new found confidence to travel with the team to Houston this weekend. Game 3 Prediction: Blazers 94 Houston 89
Friday, April 17, 2009
2009 Western Conference Playoff Preview

Here are my 2009 NBA Western Conference postseason predictions. As the playoffs progress I will analyze each math up more thoroughly.
First Round
1)
4)
2)
3)
Western Conference Semifinals
1)
2)
Western Conference Finals
1)
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
2009 Oregon Football Season Preview

New head coach Chip Kelly will lead the Ducks into the 2009 season, hopefully picking up where Mike Bellotti left off. I honestly thought Bellotti would give it one more season, in a final attempt to lead the Ducks to the “Promised Land”. At least with Kelly taking charge there won’t be the transition phase that there would have been if the Ducks hired from outside the program. And who am I to say Kelly won’t lead the Ducks to new heights in his first year! Here are my off the cuff predictions at how the Ducks will do this season (yes I understand it is far too early…but none the less, here are my picks).
9/03 @ Boise State (L) – The national media will stay up late to see this classic.
9/12 Purdue (W) – Purdue wasn’t much to write home to Mom about last season, and this season could be even worse with the departures of quarterback Curtis Painter and head coach Joe Tiller.
9/19
9/26
10/3
10/10 @ UCLA (W) – With UCLA still in the rebuilding mode, I think this game could be a joke. UCLA played the Ducks close in Autzen last year, but Masoli was only a shell of the player he was yet to become. Will this rivalry lose it’s intensity with Bellotti vs. Slick Rick no longer a main storyline? I think not, as the Ducks do a number on the rebuilding Bruins!
10/24 @ Washington (W) – Oregon has not lost to Washington since the 2003 season, but only one of those wins has come in Seattle (2007 Storm Trooper attack). I like the intensity “The Shark” brings to a depleted fan base, but intensity won’t win you many games with the current talent on that roster.
10/31 USC (W) – This will likely be a match up of top 10 teams, and a Rose Bowl bid may well be on the line. To say USC is vulnerable would be an overstatement, but the Trojans will be breaking in many new faces that have never experienced the Autzen crowd (on Halloween at that). I just hope I have the energy to make it into the stadium that Saturday, because I know sleep will not come easy for me on the eve of this epic battle.
11/7 @ Stanford (W) –
11/14 Arizona State (W) - A bye week would sure be nice right about now! Dennis Erickson looks to beat the Ducks for the first time since joining ASU. After what the Ducks did to the Devils down in
11/21 @ Arizona (L) – Playing for the 5th time in 5 weeks won’t bode well for the Ducks as they enter
12/3 Oregon State (W) – The Ducks look to end the trend of the away team winning the Civil War each of the last two years. While the loss to
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Portland wins in San Antonio
Some individual thoughts....
Welcome back Greg Oden! Greg was active tonight, finishing some nice passes with thunderous slam-dunks. He also added 8 boards in his 22 minutes of work. He still picked up some fouls, but am I alone when I question the legitimacy of some of the calls that go against the big fella? I understand he has deservedly earned a bit of a reputation as a guy who will pick up some fouls, but it's gotten to the point where other players will flop when they are anywhere in his vacinity and the men in stripes will whistle him for an infraction. He still needs to be smart and move his feet, but he is getting jobbed by the officials often times as well.
Brandon struggled early on with turnovers but he really carried us through that 2nd quarter surge, like LaMarcus did in the 3rd (more on him later). He scored 26 and noted after the game that this was the first time in his career when he felt like he played well in San Antonio. It was kind of funny and refreshing for a two-time all-star to make a statement like that on national television. Reason #754 why I love this guy.
LaMarcus was captain of the ship in that 3rd quarter. He was hitting jumpers and converting offensive rebounds into points. His confidence and aggressiveness is a nightly thing at this point and it's showing us just how important he is to the team. Beast-Mode LaMarcus = Portland victories.
Joel Przybilla deserves a whole lot of credit for the win too. He didn't play as many minutes in the first half because Oden was playing so well but he was a monster on the glass throughout the second half. He also had many of the key stops that allowed us to take back the lead and build one of our own. My man-crush on the Thrilla continues on with absolutely no end in sight.
The bench as a whole played a critical role throughout the game. Rudy hit some timely threes and though I didn't hear it mentioned by the broadcasters, I thought he did a suprisingly credible job guarding Tony Parker in that 3rd quarter. Rudy can drive you crazy with his gambling on-the-ball defense sometimes but he stayed in front of Parker as well as anyone and forced him to take some tough shots. Sergio was also good tonight, getting into the lane and either finishing or finding Greg for a slam. Without him the team might have gone into the half staring at a much steeper deficit.
Other quick thoughts: Blake's buzzer beater was a real lift (duh), I still don't understand how Outlaw finishes some of those crazy, leaning jumpers, and a really don't get how Nate didn't pick up a technical or get tossed as that first quarter was going on. He is a much cooler and more patient guy than me because I was berating my T.V. like I was Christian Bale on the set of a movie. Anyway, good win for the team and let's all hope they can continue their strong play into their first postseason since 2003.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
2009 National League Central

The Basement:
The Pirates and Astros appear to be the weaklings of the group. The Pirates best hitter last year (of the guys they didn't trade to the American League East midseason) was Nate McClouth. What a great story. He was selected to play in the midsummer classic and won a gold glove for his work in centerfield. The 27-year-old appeared to really come into his own, hitting over 20 HR and stealing over 20 bases while posting an OPS of .853. For the stat junkies he was estimated to be worth about 3.6 wins to his team last year, more than some better known CF like Curtis Granderson and Torii Hunter. The problem, he was actually a pretty bad defensive CF. You may ask, "Then how did he win a freaking gold glove?!?!" My answer is this: I have no clue. Most of the advanced defensive metrics have him as one of the three worst defensive CF for guys who played out there for at least 300 innings. It blows me away to think of the guys who vote on these awards and how little they care. Anyway, the rest of their lineup has a few bright spots for Bucs fans to look forward to. Ryan Doumit is a very good hitting catcher when healthy. Andy Laroche was rated as the 19th best prospect in the game by Baseball America in 2007; the Pirates got him from the Dodgers last season. The rotation is led by Paul Maholm and Ian Snell. Neither got to double digit wins last season but Maholm had a sub-4.00 ERA and Snell won 14 games and struck out 169 batters in 2006. If these two guys can pitch healthy and effectively all season, the Pirates could avoid the division cellar, but there is virtually no chance they contend for the Central crown.
The Astros appear to be pretty bad as well. They have the familiar sluggers in Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee and the dependable starter in Roy Oswalt, but little else. Miguel Tejada actually saw his defense bounce back in 2008, but his hitting suffered. Throw in the question marks surrounding the steroids and perjury and the Astros probably don't even know what to expect from Miguel this season. The rest of the rotation is pretty mediocre to downright bad. The Astros will struggle in 2009.
The Dark Horse
Cincinnati is a team with some good young position players and some pitchers whose careers are on the rise. Edison Volquez was a Cy Young candidate last year, going 17-6 and striking out over 200 hitters. Expect him to give up a few more homeruns this year considering his home park and propensity to give up the fly ball, but also expect him to win games and strike a lot of guys out. Johnny Cueto is another young arm who struggled last season at times, but he has good stuff and should improve in 2009. If veterans Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang give the club meaningful contributions this season, it's not inconceivable to think the Reds could have a decent little starting rotation. Jay Bruce was a huge outfield prospect who came up last year and could improve this season if he can get on base more often. He does have power as well; he hit 21 homers in just over 400 AB last season. Joey Votto is their young 1B who excelled last year, posting an .874 OPS with 24 HR. He probably won't ever be an elite power hitter but he will hit for average, get on base, and play solid defense at 1B. All in all the Reds have lots of younger talent and could grow up and improve as the season goes on.
Contenders
The Cubs are the favorites but the Brewers or Cardinals could challenge them for division supremacy. The Cardinals have an offense built around the great Albert Pujols, but a starting staff that will rely on the return of a healthy Chris Carpenter. The Brewers have all kinds of good young position players but very little starting pitching. They relied very heavy on CC Sabathia down the stretch last season and I just can't see them making up for the loss of the big fella. The point of all this is that the division is certainly the Cubs to lose. They have a strong lineup and a good pitching staff, although they are depending on the glass arm of Rich Harden, just ask Billy Beane and the Oakland A's how far that will get you. They saw a resurgence from Ryan Dempster last season and Carlos Zambrano won 14 games. Repeating these performances may not be all that likely however. Zambrano has pitched loads of innings year after year and may see his decline after the all-star break last year continue into this season. Dempster was a reliever for four years until last season and nobody knows how that increased workload will affect him in this year's campaign. The Cubs are certainly the odds-on favorite but I don't see them as the lock that many do to take the Central. We must always remember that they are the loveable losers, and after collapsing in the playoffs last year I am curious to see how they approach this season.
CY Young Winner
While I suppose Zambrano, Volquez, Harden, and the Cardinals' Adam Wainwright are all possibilities, I will give this one to Roy Oswalt. He has been a model of consistency through the years, making at last 32 starts six out of the last seven seasons. He won 17 games and struck out 165 hitters last season on a bad Astros team. I see no reason why he can't do it again.
MVP
Albert Pujols every day of the week. The guy probably the best hitter in baseball and should go down as one of the all time greats when he hangs up his cleats. He has played for eight seasons and finished in the top 4 in MVP voting seven times. The other season he finished ninth. The guy is a machine. There is no reason to think he won't post another 1.000 OPS and hit .330 with 35 HR. It's what the guy does.
The Division Winner
The Cubs. I hope it works out for them. Their fans deserve a winner and the post-season is always more entertaining when they are prominently involved.
Monday, April 6, 2009
2009 Beavers Football Predictions

With spring practice in full swing, and many exciting position battles to ensue for the Beavers, it’s a little difficult to predict how next season is going to turn out. Regardless of kickoff being roughly 150 days away, here is an extremely premature look at how I believe the 2009 Oregon State Beavers will fare. (I will certainly go into each match up in more depth as the season progresses, but here are my off the cuff predictions).
9/05 Portland State (W) – I like the fact that Oregon State will start the season against a relative cupcake, as opposed to LSU, Stanford, etc. in years past. Beavs win this one easily.
9/12 @ UNLV (W) – The Runnin’ Rebels did win at ASU last September, but struggled mightily the rest of the season. I expect UNLV to keep it respectable in the first half…but the talent gap will become evident early in the second, as the Rodgers brothers should have a hay day against this lower tier Mountain West opponent.
9/19 Cincinnati (W) – The Bearcats won the Big East last season and nearly upset Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. However this year’s team will have a completely different look as they graduated nearly all their contributors from a season ago. It should be an entertaining non conference matchup, but the Beavers, and more importantly the Pac 10 will get a much needed win.
9/26
10/3 @Arizona State (W) – Things were awful down in Tempe last season, and in my opinion its not going to be any better this season. Their will be a new quarterback for the Sun Devils, who also return nearly all of an underwhelming defense. The Beavers inexperienced defensive backs shouldn’t be tested much at all by Erickson’s bunch.
10/10 Stanford (W) –
10/24 @ USC (L) – Even with the losses of Sanchez, Cushing, Big Ray, and Matthews,
10/31 UCLA (W) – Slick Rick leads the Bruins into the
11/7 @ Cal (L) – The Beavers have had success against
11/14 Washington (W) – Dad’s weekend welcomes the Huskies to Reser Stadium. I expect
11/21 @ Washington State (W) – Everybody will look forward to playing the
2009 National League West

The Basement
I really don't see San Diego or Colorado contending for the division this year. Colorado should be encouraged by the return of Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop but they also lost their best hitter in the offseason, Matt Holliday. Jeff Francis, the ace of their 2007 staff during their run to the world series, is hurt again in 2009 and Colorado just doesn't have the pitching to compete with the stronger teams in the division. San Diego has a poor offense and if they struggle out of the gate like I think they will, ace right-hander Jake Peavy could be traded to a contender. They pose no real threat in my eyes.
Might Surprise
San Francisco should be improved behind phenom Tim Lincecum and a group of quality starting pitchers. Matt Cain strikes people out and would have a better record over the past few seasons if not for the Giants' pathetic offense. Jonathan Sanchez is a lefty who won 9 games with an ERA of 5.01 last year while striking out nearly a batter per inning in nearly 160 innings. His control is an issue but he was somewhat unlucky last year, giving up a high batting average on balls hit in play. That number should come down, and if it does, his ERA will come down as well. The immortal Randy Johnson is certainly a question mark at this point in his career but if he can come close to replicating the season he had in 2008 for the Diamondbacks the Giants' starting pitching could be very good. All of that said, I don't feel like they pose a threat to Los Angeles or Arizona, but I do think they finish 3rd ahead of Colorado and San Diego.
The Contenders
Los Angeles ended the Manny saga early in the spring, bringing back the mercurial slugger for two more seasons in Dodger blue. While he almost certainly won't duplicate his 2008 second half, he solidifies the offense built around young players like Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, James Loney, and Russell Martin. If Rafael Furcal can return to form coming back from injury, I think the Dodgers could roll out the top offense in the division.
Arizona has two studs at the top of their rotation in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. Doug Davis and Max Scherzer will probably be their #3 and #4 starters. Doug Davis is a pretty mediocre veteran. He should post an ERA somewhere around 4.50 and win 8-10 games. Max Scherzer is much more compelling to me, despite dealing with a hurt shoulder this spring. He struck out over 10 hitters per nine innings last year out of the bullpen and if he can continue some of that success while starting games and staying healthy he should be another solid member of the rotation in 2009. The Diamondbacks also signed Jon Garland but he sucks and is a waste of $12 million in my eyes. The offense is very reliant on young players, but the hitters have talent. Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson were probably their best hitters last year, and both are young so they could see improvements in 2009. Stephen Drew could stand to cut down on his strikeouts and try and draw a few more walks. His defense at SS is fairly underwhelming as well. I really like Conor Jackson at 1B, despite the perceived lack of power. He should post a good batting average and OBP while hitting 15-20 HR. Chris Young in CF is guy who won't put up a high OBP or batting average, but should hit 20 homeruns and steal 20 bases. His defense seems like it should be better in CF considering his athletic ability, but the metrics show him to be pretty average out there. Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds are some other intriguing names on the roster. Upton is super young and talented. He is much stronger than his brother B.J. and could put up 20 HR. He turns 22 in August, so that is some pretty impressive power potential. Mark Reynolds has a lot of power potential as well. He hit 28 HR last year and could certainly build upon that again this year, but he will certainly strike out a lot and hit for a low average. All in all the Diamondbacks have a lot of talent but the uncertainty is just high enough for me to go with the Dodgers to win the west.
MVP
I think Manny Ramirez will be the MVP of the division; the guy was born to hit and shows no signs of slowing down. He will probably hit .300 with 30 HR and 100 RBI in his sleep. With an OPS that will creep toward .1000, he is simply the best hitter in the division.
CY Young
This one is tougher than the MVP choice. For me it comes down to Brandon Webb and Tim Lincecum, just like the NL Cy Young race last year. I will go with Lincecum because despite San Francisco's poor offense, he should still win 17+ games with a ton of strikeouts and a dazzling ERA.
The Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Kent Given One More Year

Oregon basketball coach Ernie Kent has been given at least one more year at Oregon. This will be Kent's 13th season at the helm, as he is coming off only his second losing season ever with the Duck's. I feel that Kent will be given the same ultimatum that Bev Smith was prior to this most recent reason....That is, make the NCAA tourney or go home. However, by bringing Kent back for next season, one could argue that Oregon is committed to him for at least two more years. Would they really fire him after next season, the year before the new arena opens? In my opinion Ernie has earned the right to have another go around with this team. Last years team was young and immature ....and if you recall Ridnour and Jackson rebounded from a disappointing freshman season, only to win the PAC 10 as sophomores the following year!!
On a side note: I know this has nothing to do with Oregon bball, but while watching the 11 o'clock news last night I saw Mike Bellotti roaming the sidelines. At the time I was unaware he was helping out with the QB's this spring, so I thought I must have been dreaming. However, it was not a dream, and nothing the AD department does surprises me anymore. I just wanted to express how fortunate Oregon is to have an iconic figure willing to put his ego to the side, and do whatever he can to assist the football program. This also will allow coach Kelly to take his time while looking for potential assistant coaches.